Projections of Education Statistics to 2006. Twenty-Fifth Edition.

U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328.

N

223

Birth Rate; Educational Trends; Elementary Secondary Education; Enrollment Projections; Estimation (Mathematics); High School Graduates; Higher Education; Immigrants; Mathematical Models; Prediction; Public Schools; Research Methodology; Teachers; Trend Analysis

978-0-16-048572-5

This edition is the 25th report in a series that began in 1964. It revises the previous edition and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2006. Projections are also included for elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2006 for public schools at the state level. Projections in this report reflect the 1990 Census and 1994 estimates and recent assumptions about the fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate. A methodology section describes models and assumptions used to develop the national projections, including age-specific models, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth. The first set of alternatives is designed to represent the most likely projections, but the high and low estimates provide a reasonable range of outcomes. Among the notable projections is that total public and private elementary enrollment is projected to increase over the period, with enrollment increases in elementary, secondary, and higher education. Four technical appendixes provide information about projection methodology, supplementary tables, data sources, and a glossary. (Contains 1 chart, 70 figures, 52 tables, 27 tables in Appendix A, and 12 tables in Appendix B.) (Author/SLD)

1997

ED399278