A Broad Base National Enrollment Model.

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  • Author(s): Neblock, Carl S.
  • Language:
    English
  • Publication Date:
    1996
  • Document Type:
    Speeches/Meeting Papers
    Opinion Papers
  • Additional Information
    • Peer Reviewed:
      N
    • Source:
      26
    • Subject Terms:
      Algorithms; Bilingual Education; Cohort Analysis; Compensatory Education; Cybernetics; Educational Finance; Elementary Secondary Education; Enrollment Projections; Enrollment Rate; Enrollment Trends; Feeder Patterns; Group Membership; Models; School Holding Power; Special Education; Systems Approach
    • Subject Terms:
      U.S.; Texas
    • Abstract:
      The use of the cohort-survival method for projecting student enrollments is widely known in educational finance literature; however, the limited information provided by the model impedes planners in making future operational decisions. The cohort-survival method employs historical rates of usage to predict future patterns of usage and produces a grade-by-grade forecast for each student cohort. This paper presents a model that develops multipliers for several student-support programs to create a broad base of information. The model accommodates the number of regular public school students by grade level as well as an estimate of certain student-support programs--compensatory education, bilingual education, and 11 categories of special education. The model incorporates student-support-program requirements and adds the numbers of retained members to the next cohort, thus presenting a more accurate view of the enrollment picture. Two figures are included. (Contains nine references.) (LMI)
    • Notes:
      Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Finance Association (Salt Lake City, UT, March 1996).
    • Journal Code:
      RIEDEC1996
    • Publication Date:
      1996
    • Accession Number:
      ED397478