The Dissat-Factor: Recent Discoveries in the Dissatisfaction Theory.

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  • Additional Information
    • Peer Reviewed:
      N
    • Source:
      21
    • Subject Terms:
      Board Candidates; Boards of Education; Elections; Elementary Secondary Education; Factor Analysis; Models; Predictor Variables; Public Schools; Regression (Statistics); School Districts
    • Subject Terms:
      Texas
    • Abstract:
      Data on 70 independent school districts within the East Texas School Study Council were studied to develop a model, based on dissatisfaction theory, that would predict a target election of a school board member. It was hypothesized that: (1) standard variables from the dissatisfaction theory would account for a significant amount of the variance in incumbent defeat (ICD) in the election; (2) those variables identified in the regression equation accounting for the variance in ICD would be unstable across time; (3) the statistical model would predict the results of a future election better than chance would indicate; and (4) the principal predictor in such a formula would be a factor emerging from dissatisfaction theory (the Dissat-factor). Data were analyzed using a stepwise multiple regression procedure. Results indicate that: standard variables cannot be used to predict future elections (even though they continue to account for significant amounts of the variance in ICD in previous elections); the factor emerging from dissatisfaction theory (the Dissat-factor) is a stable variable that can predict ICD in future elections; and other variables dealing with the school board pattern can be useful in predicting ICD. Twelve tables are included. (TJH)
    • Publication Date:
      1988
    • Accession Number:
      ED297018