Prediction of Grade of Dropout from 3rd Grade Data.

National Institute of Mental Health, 2340 University Blvd. E., Adelphi, Maryland 20783 (HC-Free)

N

30

Academic Achievement; Academic Failure; Data Analysis; Dropout Characteristics; Elementary School Students; Failure; Grade 3; Intervention; Predictor Variables; Surveys; Test Results

Measures of background characteristics, school performance, and test achievement were analyzed for four race-by-sex samples of third graders who were known to have later become high school dropouts. In each sample, age in the third grade, course marks, and standardized achievement scores were found to be significantly related to the grade in which dropouts would leave secondary school. On these measures dropout from earlier grades was associated with lower marks and test scores and being older in the third grade than dropouts from later grades. Results showed that the strongest predictors of when a dropout will leave school are also among the measures that differentiate dropouts from graduates. From the finding it was concluded that in identifying potential dropouts, one can concurrently determine the severity of problems that may lead to early rather than late dropout, thus providing a basis for establishing priorities in the need for intervention to prevent future school failure and dropout. (For related document see CG008551). (Author)

1974

ED085624