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Wando Mount Pleasant Library
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The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll.
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- Author(s): Gutsche, Tania L.; Kapteyn, Arie; Meijer, Erik; Weerman, Bas
- Source:
Public Opinion Quarterly. 2014 Supplement, Vol. 78 Issue S1, p233-254. 22p. 3 Color Photographs, 1 Black and White Photograph, 2 Diagrams, 3 Charts. - Source:
- Additional Information
- Subject Terms:
- Subject Terms:
- Abstract: The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (CPEP) was conducted within the American Life Panel, an Internet panel recruited through traditional probability sampling to ensure representativeness. Because the CPEP asks the same respondents repeatedly about their voting preferences, observed changes are attributable primarily to individuals changing their minds and not to random sampling fluctuations. The CPEP asks respondents to state in terms of percent chance both their preferences for a candidate and the likelihood that they will vote. Moreover, we asked the respondents about their actual voting after the election, so we can study the predictive power both within sample and out of sample (the national results). The CPEP appears to have predicted well. Our final prediction of the difference in popular vote between Obama and Romney differed about half a percentage point from the final tally, which would place it near or at the top of the polling firms. The probabilistic questions, even months before the election, were strongly related to actual voting behavior. Our approach allows us to gain insights into stability of voting preferences and the effect of events on individual preferences; for example, various shifts can be clearly related to major events. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Abstract: Copyright of Public Opinion Quarterly is the property of Oxford University Press / USA and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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