Are Election Polls Right? Analysis of the Accuracy of Election Polls Predictions Published in the Press.

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    • Alternate Title:
      ¿Aciertan los sondeos electorales? Análisis sobre la bondad de predicción de los sondeos electorales publicados en la prensa.
    • Subject Terms:
      SPAIN. Cortes Generales; SPANISH politics & government; ELECTION coverage; ACCURACY in journalism; PUBLIC opinion polls; ELECTIONS
    • Subject Terms:
      SPAIN
    • Abstract:
      Este artículo analiza las predicciones sobre los resultados de las elecciones al Congreso de los Diputados de España publicadas en los principales medios de la prensa española. Para comparar su grado de acierto se define una distancia entre la previsión y los resultados reales, y se valora su magnitud comparándola con la que presenta lo que se ha denominado "sondeo perfecto", realizado por simulación a partir de las proporciones realmente obtenidas por cada partido. También se analizan otros aspectos relacionados con los sondeos publicados, como la relación entre el tamaño de muestra y la calidad de la estimación realizada, o entre el error que se comete (por exceso o por defecto) con un partido y la afinidad ideológica entre dicho partido y el medio que publica la encuesta. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
      This paper analyses the predictions of the election results for the Spanish Parliament published in the main Spanish newspapers. To gauge their degree of accuracy, the distance between the predictions and the actual results was defined and later assessed by comparing it with that of the so-called 'perfect poll'. This 'perfect poll' was generated by a simulation using the proportions of votes actually obtained by each party. Other issues related to the published polls are also analysed, such as the relationship between sample size and estimation quality, and between the error made (by excess or defect) for a party and the ideological affinity between that party and the newspaper publishing the survey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
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