El Niño southern oscillation, weather patterns, and bacillary dysentery in the Yangtze River Basin, China.

Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101705789 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2397-0642 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 23970642 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Glob Health Res Policy Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2016]-

El Nino-Southern Oscillation* ; Dysentery, Bacillary*/epidemiology ; Weather*; China/epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Rivers

Background: Increasingly intense weather anomalies associated with interannual climate variability patterns, like El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), could exacerbate the occurrence and transmission of infectious diseases. However, research in China remains limited in understanding the impacts and intermediate weather changes of ENSO on bacillary dysentery (BD). This study aimed to reveal the relationship between ENSO, weather conditions, and the incidence of BD, and to identify the potential meteorological pathways moderated by ENSO in the ENSO-BD connections.
Methods: BD disease data and meteorological data, as well as ENSO index, from 2005 to 2020 were obtained for 95 cities in the Yangtze River Basin. We first established the associations between ENSO events and BD, ENSO and weather, as well as weather and BDs using two-stage statistical models. Then, we applied a causal mediation analysis to identify the specific meteorological changes in the ENSO-BD relationship.
Results: In the Yangtze River Basin, both El Niño (IRR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.04 ~ 1.08) and La Niña (IRR: 1.03, 95%CI: 1.02 ~ 1.05) events were found to increase the risk of BD. Variations of ENSO index were associated with changes in local weather conditions. Both the increases in regional temperatures and rainfall were associated with a higher risk of BD. In the casual mediation analyses, we identified that higher temperatures and excessive rainfall associated with La Niña and El Niño events mediated the ENSO's effect on BD, with mediation proportions of 38.58% and 34.97%, respectively.
Conclusions: Long-term climate variability, like ENSO, can affect regional weather conditions and lead to an increased risk of BD. We identified the mediating weather patterns in the relationship between ENSO and BD, which could improve targeted health interventions and establish an advanced early warning system in response to the BD epidemic.
Competing Interests: Declarations Ethics approval and consent to participate Not applicable. Consent for publication Not applicable. Competing interests The corresponding author Cunrui Huang is a member of Editorial Board of the journal. The authors declare that they have no other competing interests.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)

Ecohealth. 2016 Mar;13(1):83-99. (PMID: 26832694)
Sensors (Basel). 2020 Nov 09;20(21):. (PMID: 33182272)
PLoS Med. 2018 Nov 8;15(11):e1002688. (PMID: 30408029)
Environ Health Perspect. 2001 May;109(5):489-93. (PMID: 11401760)
PNAS Nexus. 2022 Mar 29;1(2):pgac032. (PMID: 36713319)
Sci Rep. 2023 Jul 8;13(1):11068. (PMID: 37422491)
Nature. 2018 Jul;559(7715):535-545. (PMID: 30046070)
Science. 2000 Sep 8;289(5485):1766-9. (PMID: 10976073)
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Dec 1;643:414-422. (PMID: 29940452)
J Stat Softw. 2011 Jul;43(8):1-20. (PMID: 22003319)
Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2021 Oct;9:100230. (PMID: 34664039)
Nat Commun. 2019 Dec 20;10(1):5798. (PMID: 31862873)
Lancet Planet Health. 2022 Feb;6(2):e147-e155. (PMID: 35150623)
Nat Clim Chang. 2014 Dec;4:1109-1115. (PMID: 25530812)
Stat Med. 2014 Feb 28;33(5):881-99. (PMID: 24027094)
Br J Math Stat Psychol. 2014 Nov;67(3):451-70. (PMID: 24188158)
Behav Res Methods Instrum Comput. 2004 Nov;36(4):717-31. (PMID: 15641418)
N Engl J Med. 2005 Oct 6;353(14):1433-6. (PMID: 16207843)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Dec 20;113(51):14589-14594. (PMID: 27791069)
Curr Environ Health Rep. 2018 Jun;5(2):272-282. (PMID: 29721700)
J Consum Psychol. 2012 Oct 1;22(4):600-602. (PMID: 23180961)
Lancet Reg Health Am. 2023 Sep 21;27:100601. (PMID: 37766923)
Trop Med Int Health. 2014 Aug;19(8):928-42. (PMID: 24811732)
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Mar 15;760:144244. (PMID: 33348157)
Lancet. 2023 Nov 18;402(10415):1811-1813. (PMID: 37597524)
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Feb 10;755(Pt 2):142626. (PMID: 33039932)
Sci Total Environ. 2018 May 15;624:926-934. (PMID: 29275255)
BMC Public Health. 2014 Sep 25;14:998. (PMID: 25257255)
Environ Int. 2018 Dec;121(Pt 1):649-657. (PMID: 30316180)
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016 Jan 27;13(2):164. (PMID: 26828503)
Environ Int. 2016 Jan;86:14-23. (PMID: 26479830)
Science. 2006 Dec 15;314(5806):1740-5. (PMID: 17170296)
Environ Res. 2019 Jun;173:255-261. (PMID: 30928856)
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jun 25;671:1206-1213. (PMID: 31186130)
Environ Res. 2007 Jan;103(1):117-20. (PMID: 16690051)
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Apr 20;714:136702. (PMID: 31981871)
Fundam Res. 2023 Jul 11;4(3):495-504. (PMID: 38933184)
Environ Health Perspect. 2020 May;128(5):57008. (PMID: 32452706)
Nature. 2011 Aug 24;476(7361):438-41. (PMID: 21866157)
Nat Commun. 2021 Oct 12;12(1):5785. (PMID: 34642319)
Environ Int. 2019 Jun;127:801-809. (PMID: 31051323)
Sci Bull (Beijing). 2017 May 15;62(9):648-651. (PMID: 36659306)
Environ Sci Technol. 2016 May 17;50(10):4905-22. (PMID: 27058059)
Environ Health Perspect. 2019 Sep;127(9):97005. (PMID: 31536392)
Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023024. (PMID: 36822193)
Nat Commun. 2023 Sep 21;14(1):5887. (PMID: 37735448)

2018YFA0606200 National Key R&D Program of China

Keywords: Bacillary dysentery; Climate variability; El Niño southern oscillation; Mediation analysis; Weather pattern

Date Created: 20241112 Date Completed: 20241112 Latest Revision: 20241116

20241116

PMC11552299

10.1186/s41256-024-00389-4

39529204