Model-inferred timing and infectious period of the chickenpox outbreak source.

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  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 100968551 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1471-2334 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 14712334 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BMC Infect Dis Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2001-
    • Subject Terms:
      Chickenpox*/epidemiology ; Chickenpox*/prevention & control ; Disease Outbreaks*; Humans ; China/epidemiology ; Child ; Male ; Female ; Schools ; Bayes Theorem ; Time Factors
    • Abstract:
      Background: In May 2024, a chickenpox outbreak was reported at Xiasha Primary School located in Nanshan District, Shenzhen City, China, with a total of 12 cases identified. Despite thorough on-site investigations, the source of infection remained undetected. The purpose of our study was to infer the timing and duration of the infectious period of the initial case using modeling techniques, thereby deducing the identity of the source.
      Methods: We conducted an individual contact survey within the class affected by the epidemic and utilized an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate the key parameters related to the timing of the infectious source's emergence and the duration of its infectiousness. The point estimates derived from the ABM served as prior information for a subsequent Bayesian analysis, which in turn provided the posterior distribution for these parameters.
      Results: Our models suggested the infection source entered the classroom around April 24th (95% credible interval: April 22nd to April 26th), with an infectious period of approximately two days. Based on these findings, we should aim to detect students who may have been absent due to atypical chickenpox symptoms during this period and closely examine teachers who were present for two consecutive days for any indication of potential infection.
      Conclusion: This study demonstrates the efficacy of combining contact surveys with mathematical modeling for outbreak source tracing, offering a novel approach to supplement field epidemiological surveys.
      Clinical Trial Number: Not applicable.
      (© 2024. The Author(s).)
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    • Grant Information:
      JCYJ20210324115411030 the Key Project of Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission; JCYJ20210324115411030 the Key Project of Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission; RKX20200327095612234 Natural Science Foundation of Shenzhen Municipality; RKX20200327095612234 Natural Science Foundation of Shenzhen Municipality; 2020B1111340077 the Special Foundation of Science and Technology Innovation Strategy of Guangdong Province, China
    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: Agent-based model; Bayesian analysis; Chickenpox outbreak; Source tracing
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20241107 Date Completed: 20241108 Latest Revision: 20241116
    • Publication Date:
      20241116
    • Accession Number:
      PMC11542425
    • Accession Number:
      10.1186/s12879-024-10127-3
    • Accession Number:
      39511467