[Synchronies and asynchronies in the development of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy].

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  • Additional Information
    • Transliterated Title:
      Sincronie e asincronie negli sviluppi della pandemia di COVID-19 sul territorio.
    • Source:
      Publisher: Cooperativa epidemiologia e prevenzione Country of Publication: Italy NLM ID: 8902507 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1120-9763 (Print) Linking ISSN: 11209763 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Epidemiol Prev Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Original Publication: Milano : Cooperativa epidemiologia e prevenzione
    • Subject Terms:
      COVID-19*/epidemiology ; Pandemics* ; SARS-CoV-2*; Italy/epidemiology ; Humans ; Cluster Analysis ; COVID-19 Testing ; Time Factors
    • Abstract:
      Background: the study of the possible determinants of the rise and fall of infections can be of great relevance, as was experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the methods to understand whether determinants are simultaneous or develop through contiguity between different areas is the study of the diagnostic replication index RDt among regions.
      Objectives: to introduce the analysis of RDt variability and the subsequent application of a recently introduced functional clustering method as highly useful procedures for recognizing the presence of clusters with similar trends in epidemic curves.
      Design: within the considered period, trends in regional RDt are analyzed in detail over four different time intervals.
      Setting and Participants: to exemplify this methodology, the study of variability in the period from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022 may be of interest.
      Main Outcomes Measures: the variability in the regional RDt indices is assessed by means of the correlation coefficient weighted with respect to the populations of the individual regions. The clustering procedure is applied to the time series of absolute RDt values.
      Results: it emerges that the periods of increasing variability in the RDt correspond to the initial growth or decrease in the number of infections, while functional clustering identifies macro-areas in which the epidemic curves have had similar trends. What caused contagions to increase seems to relate to a factor that is not specific to certain areas, with the contribution in some cases of a contagion dynamic between adjacent areas.
      Conclusions: the variability in the trend of regional diagnostic replication indices, which are calculated with only a few days delay, is a further indicator for the early detection of major changes in the trend of epidemic curves. The clustering of epidemic index curves may be useful to determine whether determinants act simultaneously or by contiguity between adjacent areas.
    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: Coefficient of variation; Determinant; Diagnostic reproduction index; Functional clustering; Infection spread
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20240712 Date Completed: 20240712 Latest Revision: 20240712
    • Publication Date:
      20240712
    • Accession Number:
      10.19191/EP24.3.A676.054
    • Accession Number:
      38995132