An evolutionary theory on virus mutation in COVID-19.

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  • Author(s): Luo L;Luo L; Lv J; Lv J
  • Source:
    Virus research [Virus Res] 2024 Jun; Vol. 344, pp. 199358. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Mar 21.
  • Publication Type:
    Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Language:
    English
  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: Elsevier Science Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 8410979 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1872-7492 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 01681702 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Virus Res Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Original Publication: Amsterdam : Elsevier Science, c1984-
    • Subject Terms:
      SARS-CoV-2*/genetics ; COVID-19*/virology ; Evolution, Molecular* ; Phylogeny* ; Mutation* ; Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus*/genetics; Humans ; Algorithms
    • Abstract:
      With the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2, the emergence of new strains is an intriguing question. This paper presents an evolutionary theory to analyze the mutations of the virus and identify the conditions that lead to the generation of new strains. We represent the virus variants using a 4-letter sequence based on amino acid mutations on the spike protein and employ an n-distance algorithm to derive a variant phylogenetic tree. We show that the theoretically-derived tree aligns with experimental data on virus evolution. Additionally, we propose an A-X model, utilizing the set of existing mutation sites (A) and a set of randomly generated sites (X), to calculate the emergence of new strains. Our findings demonstrate that a sufficient number of random iterations can predict the generation of new macro-lineages when the number of sites in X is large enough. These results provide a crucial theoretical basis for understanding the evolution of SARS-CoV-2.
      Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
      (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: COVID-19; Evolutionary theory; Spike protein; Virus mutation
    • Accession Number:
      0 (Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus)
      0 (spike protein, SARS-CoV-2)
    • Subject Terms:
      SARS-CoV-2 variants
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20240320 Date Completed: 20240424 Latest Revision: 20240520
    • Publication Date:
      20240520
    • Accession Number:
      PMC10979259
    • Accession Number:
      10.1016/j.virusres.2024.199358
    • Accession Number:
      38508401