Healthy life expectancy for 202 countries up to 2030: Projections with a Bayesian model ensemble.

Item request has been placed! ×
Item request cannot be made. ×
loading   Processing Request
Read More Add to Saved list
  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: International Society of Global Health Country of Publication: Scotland NLM ID: 101578780 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2047-2986 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20472978 NLM ISO Abbreviation: J Glob Health Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Publication: <2019>-: Edinburgh : International Society of Global Health
      Original Publication: Edinburgh : Edinburgh University Global Health Society, 2011-
    • Subject Terms:
      Life Expectancy* ; Communicable Diseases*; Infant, Newborn ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Healthy Life Expectancy ; Bayes Theorem ; Global Burden of Disease ; Global Health
    • Abstract:
      Background: Healthy life expectancy (HLE) projections are required for optimising social and health service management in the future. Existing studies on the topic were usually conducted by selecting a single model for analysis. We thus aimed to use an ensembled model to project the future HLE for 202 countries/region.
      Methods: We obtained data on age-sex-specific HLE and the sociodemographic index (SDI) level of 202 countries from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and used a probabilistic Bayesian model comprised of 21 forecasting models to predict their HLE in 2030.
      Results: In general, HLE is projected to increase in all 202 countries, with the least probability of 82.4% for women and 81.0% for men. Most of the countries with the lowest projected HLE would be located in Africa. Women in Singapore have the highest projected HLE in 2030, with a 94.5% probability of higher than 75.2 years, which is the highest HLE in 2019 across countries. Maldives, Kuwait, and China are projected to have a probability of 49.3%, 41.2% and 31.6% to be the new entries of the top ten countries with the highest HLE for females compared with 2019. Men in Singapore are projected to have the highest HLE at birth in 2030, with a 93.4% probability of higher than 75.2 years. Peru and Maldives have a probability of 48.7% and 35.3% being new top ten countries in male's HLE. The female advantage in HLE will shrink by 2030 in 117 countries, especially in most of the high SDI and European countries.
      Conclusions: HLE will likely continue to increase in most countries and regions worldwide in the future. More attention needs to be paid to combatting obesity, chronic diseases, and specific infectious diseases, especially in African and some Pacific Island countries. Although gender gaps may not be fully bridged, HLE could partially mitigate and even eliminate them through economic development and improvements in health care.
      Competing Interests: Disclosure of interest: The authors completed the ICMJE Disclosure of Interest Form (available upon request from the corresponding author) and disclose no relevant interests.
      (Copyright © 2023 by the Journal of Global Health. All rights reserved.)
    • References:
      Nature. 2019 May;569(7755):260-264. (PMID: 31068725)
      Lancet Public Health. 2023 Dec;8(12):e915-e922. (PMID: 37004714)
      Am J Public Health. 2013 Nov;103(11):e78-87. (PMID: 24028235)
      Sports Med Health Sci. 2019 Sep 10;1(1):3-10. (PMID: 35782456)
      Hypertension. 2020 Jan;75(1):16-22. (PMID: 31735086)
      PLoS One. 2022 Dec 21;17(12):e0278292. (PMID: 36542614)
      PLoS One. 2022 Jul 28;17(7):e0271431. (PMID: 35901094)
      Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2021 Mar;2:100023. (PMID: 33870247)
      J Am Heart Assoc. 2019 Oct;8(19):e012969. (PMID: 31530066)
      Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):2052-2090. (PMID: 30340847)
      Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2021 Sep 30;45:e114. (PMID: 34621302)
      Int J MCH AIDS. 2019;8(1):19-31. (PMID: 31049261)
      BMJ. 2011 Feb 22;342:d1104. (PMID: 21343188)
      Public Health. 2015 Jun;129(6):611-20. (PMID: 26025176)
      Lancet. 2008 Dec 20;372(9656):2124-31. (PMID: 19010526)
      Bull World Health Organ. 2018 Sep 01;96(9):610-620E. (PMID: 30262942)
      Auton Neurosci. 2015 Dec;193:138-41. (PMID: 26260435)
      BMC Med. 2019 Nov 25;17(1):212. (PMID: 31760948)
      Lancet. 2012 Dec 15;380(9859):2144-62. (PMID: 23245606)
      Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1160-1203. (PMID: 33069325)
      JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2023 May 17;9:e46634. (PMID: 37195737)
      Stat J IAOS. 2014;30(3):209-223. (PMID: 30319718)
      Lancet. 2013 Mar 30;381(9872):1125-34. (PMID: 23541053)
      BMC Med Res Methodol. 2023 Jul 6;23(1):163. (PMID: 37415112)
      Demography. 2009 Aug;46(3):627-46. (PMID: 19771948)
      J Glob Health. 2020 Dec;10(2):020407. (PMID: 33110572)
      Lancet. 2017 Apr 1;389(10076):1323-1335. (PMID: 28236464)
      Milbank Q. 2010 Mar;88(1):30-53. (PMID: 20377757)
      Lancet. 2013 Apr 13;381(9874):1312-22. (PMID: 23541057)
      Gerontologist. 2015 Dec;55(6):901-11. (PMID: 26561272)
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20231226 Date Completed: 20231227 Latest Revision: 20231228
    • Publication Date:
      20231228
    • Accession Number:
      PMC10750449
    • Accession Number:
      10.7189/jogh.13.04185
    • Accession Number:
      38146817