Prediction of total phosphorus in reservoir cascade systems.

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  • Author(s): Goes MCA;Goes MCA; Barros MUG; Barros MUG; Neto IEL; Neto IEL
  • Source:
    Environmental monitoring and assessment [Environ Monit Assess] 2023 Nov 29; Vol. 195 (12), pp. 1550. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Nov 29.
  • Publication Type:
    Journal Article
  • Language:
    English
  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: Springer Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 8508350 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1573-2959 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 01676369 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Environ Monit Assess Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Publication: 1998- : Dordrecht : Springer
      Original Publication: Dordrecht, Holland ; Boston : D. Reidel Pub. Co., c1981-
    • Subject Terms:
    • Abstract:
      Reservoir cascade systems have attracted the attention of scientists worldwide. The present study investigates the cascade of five reservoirs (R1, R2, R3, R4, and R5) along a 192-km water channel system located in the state of Ceará, in the Brazilian semiarid region. This cascade system was implemented in 2012 to promote water availability and security to the capital of Ceará and the strategic industry and port complex of the region. However, these reservoirs have faced a progressive degradation of water quality, which has resulted in intense eutrophication and high-water treatment costs. The study evaluates the dynamics of water quality from 2013 to 2021 along this reservoir cascade (from R1 to R5). The results revealed that water quality did not improve along the cascade system, differently from previous studies on reservoirs interconnected by natural rivers. This was attributed to the low water residence time and low capacity of pollutant removal along the man-made water channel system, as well as to the high internal phosphorus loads of the reservoirs. Multiple regression models involving the explanatory variables of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, chlorophyll-a, cyanobacteria, transparency, rainfall, and volume from upstream reservoirs were obtained to determine total phosphorus concentration in downstream reservoirs, considering different combinations of reservoir pairs in the cascade and different time delays. A clear trend of R 2 decline with the distance between the upstream and downstream reservoirs was observed. For example, the R 2 values for the correlations adjusted between R1 and R2 (48 km), R1 and R3 (172 km), R1 and R4 (178 km), and R1 and R5 (192 km) were 0.66, 0.32, 0.22, and 0.12, respectively. On the other hand, the adoption of time delays of the order of the cumulative residence times of the reservoirs promoted a significant improvement in the R 2 values. For instance, the best correlation adjusted between R1 and R5 improved from R 2  = 0.12 to 0.69 by considering a time delay of 21 months. This suggests that previous data from upstream reservoirs can be used to predict current and future total phosphorus concentration in downstream reservoirs. The results from this study are important to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of water quality in reservoir cascade systems and thus improve water resources management, especially in drylands.
      (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)
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    • Grant Information:
      150326/2022-0 Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico; 150326/2022-0 Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: Hydrology; Multiple regression analyses; Residence time; Tropical semiarid region; Water quality
    • Accession Number:
      0 (Aquaporins)
      YF5Q9EJC8Y (Chlorophyll A)
      N762921K75 (Nitrogen)
      27YLU75U4W (Phosphorus)
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20231129 Date Completed: 20231204 Latest Revision: 20231225
    • Publication Date:
      20231227
    • Accession Number:
      10.1007/s10661-023-12155-z
    • Accession Number:
      38030894