Statistical primer: using prognostic models to predict the future: what cardiothoracic surgery can learn from Strictly Come Dancing.

Publisher: Oxford University Press Country of Publication: Germany NLM ID: 8804069 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1873-734X (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 10107940 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Eur J Cardiothorac Surg Subsets: MEDLINE

Publication: 2012-: Oxford, England : Oxford University Press
Original Publication: [Berlin] : Springer International ; [Secaucus, NJ, USA : Springer-Verlag New York Inc., distributor, c1987-

Prognosis* ; Cardiac Surgical Procedures*; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Heart

Objectives: Prognostic models are widely used across medicine and within cardiothoracic surgery, where predictive tools such as EuroSCORE are commonplace. Such models are a useful component of clinical assessment but may be misapplied. In this article, we demonstrate some of the major issues with risk scores by using the popular BBC television programme Strictly Come Dancing (known as Dancing with the Stars in many other countries) as an example.
Methods: We generated a multivariable prognostic model using data from the then-completed 19 series of Strictly Come Dancing to predict prospectively the results of the 20th series.
Results: The initial model based solely on demographic data was limited in its predictive value (0.25, 0.22; R2 and Spearman's rank correlation, respectively) but was substantially improved following the introduction of early judges' scores deemed representative of whether contestants could actually dance (0.40, 0.30). We then utilize our model to discuss the difficulties and pitfalls in using and interpreting prognostic models in cardiothoracic surgery and beyond, particularly where these do not adequately capture potentially important prognostic information.
Conclusion: Researchers and clinicians alike should use prognostic models cautiously and not extrapolate conclusions from demographic data alone.
(© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.)

Comment in: Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 2023 Dec 1;64(6):. (PMID: 38113436)

Keywords: Strictly Come Dancing; Cardiothoracic surgery; EuroSCORE; Prognostic models; Risk prediction; STS

Date Created: 20231112 Date Completed: 20231206 Latest Revision: 20231226

20231227

10.1093/ejcts/ezad385

37952190