Predictive abilities comparison from multiple dynamic prediction models.

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  • Author(s): Moreau C;Moreau C; Riou J; Riou J; Riou J; Roux M; Roux M
  • Source:
    Statistical methods in medical research [Stat Methods Med Res] 2023 Sep; Vol. 32 (9), pp. 1811-1822. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jul 25.
  • Publication Type:
    Comparative Study; Journal Article; Review
  • Language:
    English
  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: SAGE Publications Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 9212457 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1477-0334 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 09622802 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Stat Methods Med Res Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Publication: London : SAGE Publications
      Original Publication: Sevenoaks, Kent, UK : Edward Arnold, c1992-
    • Subject Terms:
      Prognosis*; Humans ; Biomarkers ; ROC Curve
    • Abstract:
      With the development of personalized medicine, the study of individual prognosis appears to be a major contemporary scientific issue. Dynamic models are particularly well adapted to such studies by allowing some potential changes in the follow-up to be taken into account. In particular, this leads to more accurate predictions by updating the available information throughout the patient monitoring. Some mathematical tools have been developed to quantify and compare the effectiveness of dynamic predictions using dynamic versions of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Brier score in the competing risks setting. Nevertheless, only two predictive abilities can be compared. This may be too restrictive in a clinical context where more and more information can be collected during patient follow-up thanks to recent technological advances. Here we propose a new procedure that allows multiple comparisons of the predictive abilities of different biomarkers, based on the dynamic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve or Brier score. Performances of our testing procedure were assessed by simulations. Moreover, a motivating application in hepatology will be presented. Finally, this work compares more than two dynamic predictive abilities of biomarkers and is available via R functions on GitHub.
      Competing Interests: Declaration of conflicting interestsThe authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: Competing risks; dynamic Brier score; dynamic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; dynamic prediction; multiple tests; prediction accuracy
    • Accession Number:
      0 (Biomarkers)
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20230725 Date Completed: 20240123 Latest Revision: 20240124
    • Publication Date:
      20240124
    • Accession Number:
      10.1177/09622802231188521
    • Accession Number:
      37489243