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La crise financière occidentale : une chance pour la Chine ? (French)
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- Author(s): DELALANDE, PHILIPPE
- Source:
Futuribles; oct2008, Issue 345, p69-78, 9p- Subject Terms:
- Source:
- Additional Information
- Alternate Title: The Western Financial Crisis: an Opportunity for China? (English)
- Subject Terms:
- Abstract: Since mid-2007 we have been witnessing a financial crisis that originated in the now notorious "subprime crisis" which developed in the United States in 2006/07. Since most of the financial institutions concerned have international ramifications, the crisis spread, damaging the confidence of many players in the global financial system, and it continues to inspire fear regarding its possible consequences. Since the Chinese economy is closely linked to that of the USA, on account of the many letters of credit issued in dollars, American Treasury bonds held by China and export flows to the United States, is there a risk that this economic giant will be affected by the current crisis? We should not assume so, argues Philippe Delalande. On the one hand, the conditions for a real estate crisis leading to a Bank crisis followed by a Stock one do not seem to be gathered in China. On the other hand, the current world crisis could allow China to lower its growth pace and engage in a "harmonious development", as long as inflation does not increase. [TRANSLATION]
- Abstract: On assiste, depuis le milieu de l'année 2007, à une crise financière née de la désormais célèbre « crise des subprimes » survenue aux États-Unis en 2006-2007. La plupart des établissements financiers concernés ayant des ramifications internationales, la crise a fait tache d'huile et entamé la confiance de nombreux acteurs du système financier mondial, et continue de faire trembler quant à ses conséquences possibles. L'économie chinoise étant fortement liée à celle des États-Unis, en raison notamment des nombreuses créances libellées en dollars US, des bons du Trésor américain détenus par la Chine et des flux d'exportations vers les États-Unis, ce géant risque-t-il d'être affecté par la crise en cours ? Rien n'est moins sûr, indique ici Philippe Delalande : d'une part, les conditions d'une crise immobilière puis bancaire et boursière ne semblent pas réunies en Chine ; d'autre part, la crise mondiale en cours pourrait bien permettre à la Chine de baisser son rythme de croissance et de prendre la voie d'un « développement harmonieux », sous réserve toutefois que l'inflation ne s'emballe pas… [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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