Mathematical Modeling Predicts That Strict Social Distancing Measures Would Be Needed to Shorten the Duration of Waves of COVID-19 Infections in Vietnam.

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  • Author(s): Bouchnita A;Bouchnita A; Chekroun A; Chekroun A; Jebrane A; Jebrane A
  • Source:
    Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2021 Jan 12; Vol. 8, pp. 559693. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jan 12 (Print Publication: 2020).
  • Publication Type:
    Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Language:
    English
  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: Frontiers Editorial Office Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101616579 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2296-2565 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 22962565 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Front Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Original Publication: Lausanne : Frontiers Editorial Office
    • Subject Terms:
      Physical Distancing*; COVID-19/*prevention & control ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Pandemics/*prevention & control ; Quarantine/*methods; China/epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vietnam/epidemiology
    • Abstract:
      Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in 2019, has spread throughout the world and has since then been declared a pandemic. As a result, COVID-19 has caused a major threat to global public health. In this paper, we use mathematical modeling to analyze the reported data of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam and study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. To achieve this, two models are used to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The first model belongs to the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) type and is used to compute the basic reproduction number. The second model adopts a multi-scale approach which explicitly integrates the movement of each individual. Numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of social distancing measures on the spread of COVID-19 in urban areas of Vietnam. Both models show that the adoption of relaxed social distancing measures reduces the number of infected cases but does not shorten the duration of the epidemic waves. Whereas, more strict measures would lead to the containment of each epidemic wave in one and a half months.
      Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
      (Copyright © 2021 Bouchnita, Chekroun and Jebrane.)
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    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; basic reproduction number; epidemic model; multi-scale modeling
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20210201 Date Completed: 20210212 Latest Revision: 20240806
    • Publication Date:
      20240806
    • Accession Number:
      PMC7841962
    • Accession Number:
      10.3389/fpubh.2020.559693
    • Accession Number:
      33520905