Estimating prevalence of type I and type II diabetes using incidence rates: the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study.

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  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 9100013 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1873-2585 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 10472797 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Ann Epidemiol Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Original Publication: New York, NY : Elsevier, c1990-
    • Subject Terms:
      Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/*epidemiology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology; Adolescent ; Age Distribution ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/ethnology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/ethnology ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Prevalence ; Sex Distribution ; United States/epidemiology ; Young Adult
    • Abstract:
      Purpose: Most surveillance efforts in childhood diabetes have focused on incidence, whereas prevalence is rarely reported. This study aimed to assess whether a mathematical illness-death model accurately estimated future prevalence from baseline prevalence and incidence rates in children.
      Methods: SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth is an ongoing population-based surveillance study of prevalence and incidence of diabetes and its complications among youth in the United States. We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific SEARCH estimates of the prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in 2001 and incidence from 2002 to 2008. These data were used in a partial differential equation to estimate prevalence in 2009 with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Model-based prevalence was compared with the observed prevalence in 2009.
      Results: Most confidence intervals for the difference between estimated and observed prevalence included zero, indicating no evidence for a difference between the two methods. The width of confidence intervals indicated high precision for the estimated prevalence when considering all races/ethnicities. In strata with few cases, precision was reduced.
      Conclusions: Future prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in youth may be accurately estimated from baseline prevalence and incidence. Diabetes surveillance could benefit from potential cost savings of this method.
      (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
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    • Grant Information:
      P30 DK056350 United States DK NIDDK NIH HHS; U18 DP006138 United States DP NCCDPHP CDC HHS; U18 DP006139 United States DP NCCDPHP CDC HHS; UC4 DK108173 United States DK NIDDK NIH HHS
    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: Adolescents; Children; Epidemiology; Ethnic groups; Illness-death model; Surveillance; Type I diabetes; Type II diabetes
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20190807 Date Completed: 20200923 Latest Revision: 20220928
    • Publication Date:
      20231215
    • Accession Number:
      PMC6785183
    • Accession Number:
      10.1016/j.annepidem.2019.07.006
    • Accession Number:
      31383511