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Estimating prevalence of type I and type II diabetes using incidence rates: the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study.
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- Author(s): Tönnies T;Tönnies T; Imperatore G; Imperatore G; Hoyer A; Hoyer A; Saydah SH; Saydah SH; D'Agostino RB Jr; D'Agostino RB Jr; Divers J; Divers J; Isom S; Isom S; Dabelea D; Dabelea D; Lawrence JM; Lawrence JM; Mayer-Davis EJ; Mayer-Davis EJ; Pihoker C; Pihoker C; Dolan L; Dolan L; Brinks R; Brinks R
- Source:
Annals of epidemiology [Ann Epidemiol] 2019 Sep; Vol. 37, pp. 37-42. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Jul 12.- Publication Type:
Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.- Language:
English - Source:
- Additional Information
- Source: Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 9100013 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1873-2585 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 10472797 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Ann Epidemiol Subsets: MEDLINE
- Publication Information: Original Publication: New York, NY : Elsevier, c1990-
- Subject Terms: Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/*epidemiology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology; Adolescent ; Age Distribution ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/ethnology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/ethnology ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Prevalence ; Sex Distribution ; United States/epidemiology ; Young Adult
- Abstract: Purpose: Most surveillance efforts in childhood diabetes have focused on incidence, whereas prevalence is rarely reported. This study aimed to assess whether a mathematical illness-death model accurately estimated future prevalence from baseline prevalence and incidence rates in children.
Methods: SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth is an ongoing population-based surveillance study of prevalence and incidence of diabetes and its complications among youth in the United States. We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific SEARCH estimates of the prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in 2001 and incidence from 2002 to 2008. These data were used in a partial differential equation to estimate prevalence in 2009 with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Model-based prevalence was compared with the observed prevalence in 2009.
Results: Most confidence intervals for the difference between estimated and observed prevalence included zero, indicating no evidence for a difference between the two methods. The width of confidence intervals indicated high precision for the estimated prevalence when considering all races/ethnicities. In strata with few cases, precision was reduced.
Conclusions: Future prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in youth may be accurately estimated from baseline prevalence and incidence. Diabetes surveillance could benefit from potential cost savings of this method.
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Lancet. 2009 Jun 13;373(9680):2027-33. (PMID: 19481249) - Grant Information: P30 DK056350 United States DK NIDDK NIH HHS; U18 DP006138 United States DP NCCDPHP CDC HHS; U18 DP006139 United States DP NCCDPHP CDC HHS; UC4 DK108173 United States DK NIDDK NIH HHS
- Contributed Indexing: Keywords: Adolescents; Children; Epidemiology; Ethnic groups; Illness-death model; Surveillance; Type I diabetes; Type II diabetes
- Publication Date: Date Created: 20190807 Date Completed: 20200923 Latest Revision: 20220928
- Publication Date: 20231215
- Accession Number: PMC6785183
- Accession Number: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2019.07.006
- Accession Number: 31383511
- Source:
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