PREDICTIONS DERIVED FROM THE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST SURVEY.

The article discusses predictions which were derived from the "Employment Forecast Survey" (EFS) conducted by the Canadian Department of Labour. The author explains that the forecasts were used to project available indexes of actual industrial employment and of predictions of their future magnitudes. The first part of the study attempts to describe and examine the errors of the published EFS predictions as estimates of the direction and magnitude of seasonal changes within actual employment indexes. The author states that the EFS predictions were in large error because they underestimated the magnitude of the non-seasonal changes in the corresponding actual indexes.