Blowback: new formal perspectives on agriculturally driven pathogen evolution and spread.

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  • Author(s): Wallace R;Wallace R; Wallace RG; Wallace RG
  • Source:
    Epidemiology and infection [Epidemiol Infect] 2015 Jul; Vol. 143 (10), pp. 2068-80.
  • Publication Type:
    Journal Article
  • Language:
    English
  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: Cambridge University Press Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 8703737 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1469-4409 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 09502688 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Epidemiol Infect Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Original Publication: Cambridge Eng : Cambridge University Press
    • Subject Terms:
      Disease Transmission, Infectious* ; Economics* ; Ecosystem* ; Sociological Factors*; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission; Animals ; Global Health ; Humans ; Models, Statistical
    • Abstract:
      By their diversity in time, space, and mode, traditional and conservation agricultures can create barriers limiting pathogen evolution and spread analogous to a sterilizing temperature. Large-scale monocropping and confined animal feeding-lot operations remove such barriers, resulting, above agroecologically specific thresholds, in the development and wide propagation of novel disease strains. We apply a newly developed class of necessary-conditions statistical models of evolutionary process, first using the theory on an evolutionarily stable viral pathogen vulnerable to vaccine treatment: post-World War II poliomyelitis emerged in the UK and USA from sudden widespread adoption of automobile ownership and usage. We then examine an evolutionarily variable pathogen, swine influenza in North America. The model suggests epidemiological blowback from globalizing intensive husbandry and the raising and shipping of monoculture livestock across increasing expanses, is likely to be far more consequential, driving viral selection for greater virulence and lowered response to biomedical intervention.
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    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: Deculturation; evolution; phase transition; policy; socioeconomy; virus
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20150609 Date Completed: 20150813 Latest Revision: 20221009
    • Publication Date:
      20231215
    • Accession Number:
      PMC9506975
    • Accession Number:
      10.1017/S0950268814000077
    • Accession Number:
      26050716