Measurement of urbanization and its spatiotemporal heterogenous effects on carbon emission from district heating industry in China.

[Display omitted] • CO 2 emissions of central heating sector in 57 cities in North China Plain are calculated. • Social-economic and meteorological factors influencing CO 2 emissions are studies via STIRPAT framework. • GTWR model performs well in accounting for temporal-geographical variations. • Spatiotemporal heterogeneity effects of urbanization necessitate tailor-made energy policies. With urbanization and city facility development, cities have become major contributors to carbon emissions. This study examines the influence of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions from the district heating industry (CEDH) in cities between 2012 and 2020. By adopting a STIRPAT approach, CEDH was quantified, and urbanization levels evaluated through nighttime light (NTL) imagery. The results of Geographically Temporally Weighted Regression model reveal both temporal and spatial variations in how urbanization affects CEDH. The median coefficients are 0.41 (95 %CI: 0.15,0.63) and 0.91 (95 %CI: 0.66,0.32) in 2012 and 2020, respectively. Socioeconomic indicators including population density, per capita GDP, carbon intensity, showed significant positive impacts on CEDH. The GTWR model demonstrated the best performance among the models applied, with the percentage of explained variance reaching 91.5 %, the lowest value of AIC values (498.87), the lowest value of residual-sum-of-squares (RIS) (34.86). To accounting for the temporal and geographical heterogeneity in impacts of urbanization level on CEDH, detailed analysis on four clustered groups of cities. In cities with higher urbanization, the coal-based boilers dominate CO 2 emissions with a rising portion of CEDH attributed to the gas-based boilers, while in less urbanized cities, CHP systems and coal-based boilers contribute 94 % of the emission increase from 2012 to 2020. This study underscores the importance of city-specific clean heating policies to address the diverse impacts of urbanization, socio-economic, and meteorological factors on carbon mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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