Dependência de commodities, reformas estruturais e armadilha de commodities: América do Sul 1970-2017.

Commodity dependence, structural reforms, and commodity trap: South America 1970-2017.

PRICES; ECONOMIC indicators; INTERVENTION (Federal government); FOREIGN exchange rates

Commodity dependence is a long-lasting feature of South American economies, with far reaching effects in economic and social performance. This paper focuses in the interaction between commodity prices and real exchange rate and in its effects on productive capabilities. New-Developmentalist approach has labeled that situation as a "Dutch-Disease". I propose a Balance of Payment Constraint Growth model especially designed to address some specificities of commodity dependence that allow to theoretically analyze this issue. Empirical tests are conducted for the period 1970-2017. It is found that price surges are damaging for productive capabilities only in the context of the dismantling of state intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dependência de commodities é uma característica duradoura das economias sul-americanas, com efeitos de longo alcance no desempenho econômico e social. Este artigo centra-se na interacção entre os preços das matérias-primas e a taxa de câmbio real e nos seus efeitos sobre as capacidades produtivas. A abordagem Novo-Desenvolvimentista rotulou essa situação como uma "Doença Holandesa". Proponho um modelo de Crescimento com Restrições da Balança de Pagamentos especialmente concebido para abordar algumas especificidades da dependência de commodities que permitem analisar teoricamente esta questão. Os testes empíricos são realizados para o período 1970-2017. Verifica-se que os aumentos de preços são prejudiciais para as capacidades produtivas apenas no contexto do desmantelamento da intervenção estatal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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