Economic growth and carbon emissions analysis based on tapio-ekc coupled integration and scenario simulation: a case study of china's transportation industry.

The transportation industry (TRAI) is an important source of carbon emissions for China to achieve its peak carbon and carbon neutrality targets. This study analyzes the coupled integration of TRAI economic growth and carbon emissions in 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2020 using a Tapio decoupling elasticity model and an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model. Then, a long-term energy alternative planning (LEAP) system model was constructed to predict and simulate the development of TRAI in China. The results of the study are as follows. (1) TRAI shows an inverted U-shaped decoupling in most provinces across the country, and most of the decoupling is usually more volatile in provinces with higher levels of economic development. In addition, COVID-19 positively contributes to the development of TRAI nationwide and in three regions. (2) The Tapio-EKC coupling curves of TRAI and eastern TRAI (ETRAI) nationwide have an inverted N-shape, and central TRAI (CTRAI) and western TRAI (WTRAI) have an inverted U-shape. Twenty-seven provinces crossed the decoupling elasticity inflection point nationwide, all provinces of ETRAI crossed the EKC inflection point, while all provinces of CTRAI and WTRAI did not cross the EKC inflection point; (3) The carbon reduction rates after scenario simulation ranged from 5.07 to 54.94%, with aircraft, ships, private vehicles, and their fuels (aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline) being the focus of energy saving and emission reduction. The coupled Tapio-EKC analysis model of this study is universal and can be extended to other provinces, cities, or industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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