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Folly Beach Library
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Wando Mount Pleasant Library
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Mathematical Evaluation of Passenger and Freight Rail Transport as Viewed Through the COVID-19 Pandemic and the War in Ukraine Situation.
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- Author(s): Borucka, Anna; Kozłowski, Edward
- Source:
Advances in Science & Technology Research Journal; 2024, Vol. 18 Issue 4, p238-249, 12p- Subject Terms:
- Source:
- Additional Information
- Subject Terms:
- Abstract: The main objective of the study was to develop a method for identifying the components of a time series disrupted by crisis events, allowing for evaluation, comparison and short-term forecasting of the impact of such situations. The article, using mathematical modelling, analyses and evaluates the impact of the pandemic and war on rail transport using Poland as an example. Three methods of local trend matching were used: locally estimated trend, locally estimated trend with seasonal components, locally estimated trend with locally estimated seasonal components. The study showed that the effects of the crisis are still felt today, but their impact on individual types of transport varied, and what's more, differences were also visible depending on the item being transported. Passengers, despite the introduction of high sanitary standards, severely limited their mobility. The freight transport market turned out to be more resistant to the impact of the pandemic, but both the pandemic and the war in Ukraine affected the volume of goods transported. The article presents a method that allows to identify time series disturbed by crisis events and therefore difficult to describe and make reliable forecasts. The method proposed by the authors is an innovative answer to the problems of identifying very variable series and can also be used in the analysis of other issues in which time series have been disturbed in a sudden and unexpected way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Abstract: Copyright of Advances in Science & Technology Research Journal is the property of Society of Polish Mechanical Engineers & Technicians and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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