Dual benefits and influencing factors of ocean carbon sink trading under the voluntary emission reduction mechanism. (English)

China has proposed a shift from the dual control of energy consumption (control of its total amount and intensity) to the dual control of carbon emissions, demonstrating its firm determination and great responsibility to achieve the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. As the largest carbon-emitting country, China needs to carry out mandatory emission reductions to control carbon emissions and encourage extensive carbon sequestration to achieve socialized negative emissions. As a valuable supplement to the mandatory emission reduction market, the voluntary emission reduction market takes into consideration national participation, citizens' initiative, and market operation. The synergy of these two markets is indispensable for green, low-carbon, and high-quality development in the future. This study focused on the ocean carbon sink ('blue carbon') trading and constructed a DSGE model. Using pulse response, this study determined whether ocean carbon sink trading based on the voluntary emission reduction mechanism could achieve the dual benefits of 'economy development and environmental improvement.' By conducting a sensitivity analysis, the study examined the fluctuation of the dual benefits, and combining with a welfare analysis, it also explored strategies for enhancing the dual benefits and social welfare. The results showed that: 1 Ocean carbon sink trading based on the voluntary emission reduction mechanism could achieve the dual benefits, among which the environmental improvement benefit was more significant. 2 After expanding and strengthening the marine economy and moderately increasing government subsidies, the fluctuation of the dual benefits converged, which helped the smooth operation of the ocean carbon sink market. The efficiency of ocean carbon sinks had a significant impact on the environmental improvement benefit, while the impact of carbon sink prices on the dual benefits was weak. 3 After the implementation of ocean carbon sink trading, social welfare significantly improved, and the welfare improvement effect of the proportion of marine output value was the most significant, followed by government incentive subsidies. The impact of transaction price and carbon sink efficiency on welfare was relatively weak. Finally, this study recommends the further strengthening of the implementation of the strategies of building a 'strong maritime country' and a 'marine community with a shared future' and the acceleration of the high-quality development of the marine economy. It also suggests that we should strengthen the research and technological innovation of ocean carbon sink methodology and continue to improve carbon sink efficiency. The government needs to improve the construction of various systems for voluntary emission reductions, appropriately increase incentive subsidies, and accelerate the implementation of the ocean carbon sink market through the exploration of regional voluntary emission reduction markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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