Climate Change Will Aggravate South Asian Cropland Exposure to Drought by the Middle of 21st Century.

Drought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP4‐3.4, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term), 2081–2100 (long‐term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4‐3.4, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5‐8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south‐west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid‐term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long‐term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security. Plain Language Summary: Estimating drought‐induced cropland exposure is the pivotal aspect of agricultural risk assessment for drought impacts. The purposes of this study are to explore (a) how much of the cropland area would be exposed to drought under SSP scenarios; and (b) the degree to which climate change and cropland change effects contribute to changes in exposure. In this regard, we conducted a multi‐model and multi‐scenario‐based analysis to reveal variations in the cropland area exposed to drought in South Asia. Among the seven scenario combinations, the highest percentage of cropland exposed to drought was found at 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term epoch (2041–2060). The climate change effect seems to be the key contributor in the near‐term to mid‐term period, whereas it is the cropland change effect long‐term. To reduce drought risk, we recommend focusing on strong climate change mitigation policy development in the near‐ and mid‐term periods at a global scale and strict land‐use management policy interventions in the long‐term period at the regional level. Key Points: Larger cropland area will experience drought in the 2040–2060 period, while it will decline by the end of 21st centuryThe exposed cropland will increase by 49.2% under SSP3‐7.0 than that of historical timeThe climate change effect is the pivotal contributor in exposure changes over South Asia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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