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Hurd/St. Andrews Library
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Likelihood of Success, the Science of War, and the False Security of a Technical Principle.
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- Author(s): Morkevičius, Valerie
- Source:
Review of Faith & International Affairs; Jun2024, Vol. 22 Issue 2, p13-25, 13p- Subject Terms:
- Source:
- Additional Information
- Abstract: I argue that it may be time to abandon the likelihood of success principle, a relative newcomer to the just war tradition. First, I am unconvinced of the normative value of the concept, especially when applied to states participating in defensive wars. Second, and more pragmatically, our lack of knowledge about what determines the outcomes and durations of wars, the application of a scientific-sounding concept to what is essentially a judgment of art may distort our moral reasoning. Estimating the chance that a particular war (or use of force) will generate the outcomes one hopes for is fiendishly difficult, and to be accurate, requires a knowledge of military and political science that few theorists possess. In its current form, the likelihood of success principle serves to reify existing power disparities and to render defensive wars apparently illegitimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Abstract: Copyright of Review of Faith & International Affairs is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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