Gangsters cornered.

MOLDOVAN politics & government, 1991-; RESISTANCE to government; POLITICAL corruption; SMUGGLING; GEOPOLITICS; UKRAINIAN foreign relations, 1991-; RUSSIAN foreign relations, 1991-; INTERNATIONAL relations

UKRAINEReport Available; MOLDOVAReport Available; RUSSIAReport Available

The article reports on Transdniestria, a rogue statelet that won quasi-independence from Moldova after a brief war in 1992. Transdniestria has survived on Russian military support, money and cheap gas, plus a thriving arms business and other smuggling activities. The region is a police state; its existence helps keep Moldova one of the poorest countries in Europe. But it benefits people at the top. Corrupt politicians and officials in neighbouring countries enjoy the perks of illicit trade through Transdniestria. Russia sees the region—which has a largely Russian-speaking population—as a surviving bastion of its former empire. Fitful western involvement through such outfits as the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe has had little effect. Now change is on the way. Ukraine, previously an accomplice in the smuggling business, has launched a peace plan, broadly baked by the European Union. It features free elections in Transdniestria and a negotiated settlement with Moldova under international supervision. Reaction has been mixed, but so far nobody has rejected it outright. Ukraine is also exerting practical pressure: next week, it will open five new customs posts on the border, jointly staffed with Moldovan officials. Previously, Ukraine had insisted that its constitution forbade foreign customs officers from operating on its territory. That was a convenient fiction which allowed smuggling to thrive. But the new moves are still ominous for Transdniestria, especially if they presage international supervision of the border, which an EU mission is considering.