The Impossible Energy 'Transition'.

INTERNATIONAL Energy Agency ; UNITED Nations

The United Nations climate conference in Dubai recently agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, but it remains unclear whether this will be achieved by reducing supply, reducing demand, or both. The International Energy Agency envisions a demand-side scenario where cost-competitive renewables replace fossil fuels, but currently, renewable substitutes are not yet cost-competitive. On the supply-side, governments could slash oil production or impose rationing, but this would cause prices to soar and potentially harm the poor who are more vulnerable to disruptions in energy supply. Poor countries are wary of compromising power availability for growth, and few rich countries have plans to stop drilling for oil or gas. The US administration's approach is to defer political consequences through regulatory measures, such as requiring coal and natural-gas plants to shut down or adopt zero-carbon technologies and mandating a high percentage of electric cars by 2032. However, these policies would have limited impact on global temperatures unless other countries also commit to similar measures. The long-term effects of these policies remain uncertain. [Extracted from the article]

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