HEADING FOR A FALL?

According to complexity scientist Peter Turchin, reports of Western civilization's imminent collapse are premature. Turchin has been studying the mathematics of complex systems applied to history for over two decades and has found that violent political instability follows cycles, with peaks occurring every 50 years and every two or three centuries. While signs of crisis are evident in rising economic inequality, political polarization, and ecological disasters, Turchin's research shows that human societies have evolved to become less prone to collapse. By analyzing data on past societies, Turchin has identified indicators of impending crisis, such as popular immiseration and elite overproduction, but also found that collapse is not inevitable. He suggests that societies can become more resilient by embracing useful complexity, which includes institutions and policies that promote the well-being of the majority and reduce conflict between elites. Turchin emphasizes the importance of grassroots social movements and selfless individuals in pressuring elites to prioritize the common good. [Extracted from the article]

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