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Wando Mount Pleasant Library
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Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term.
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- Author(s): Raftery, Adrian E.1 (AUTHOR) ; Ševčíková, Hana2 (AUTHOR)
- Source:
International Journal of Forecasting. Jan2023, Vol. 39 Issue 1, p73-97. 25p.- Subject Terms:
- Source:
- Additional Information
- Subject Terms:
- Abstract: Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, assess changes, and make decisions involving risks. In a significant breakthrough, since 2015, the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that we review here. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn depend on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. While the world population is projected to grow for the rest of this century, it will likely stabilize in the 22nd century and decline in the 23rd century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Abstract: Copyright of International Journal of Forecasting is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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