Assessment of health benefit of PM2.5 reduction during COVID-19 lockdown in China and separating contributions from anthropogenic emissions and meteorology.

China; Hubei Sheng (China)

The national lockdown policies have drastically disrupted socioeconomic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic in China, which provides a unique opportunity to investigate the air quality response to such anthropogenic disruptions. And it is meaningful to evaluate the potential health impacts of air quality changes during the lockdown, especially for PM 2.5 with adverse health effects. In this study, by using PM 2.5 observations from 1388 monitoring stations nationwide in China, we examine the PM 2.5 variations between the COVID-19 lockdown (February and March in 2020) and the same period in 2015–2019, and find that the national average of PM 2.5 decreases by 18 μg/m3, and mean PM 2.5 for most sites (about 75%) decrease by 30%–60%. The anthropogenic and meteorological contributions to these PM 2.5 variations are also determined by using a stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) model combined with the Kolmogorov–Zurbenko filter. Our results show that the change of anthropogenic emissions is a leading contributor to those widespread PM 2.5 reductions, and meteorological conditions have the negative influence on PM 2.5 reductions for some regions, such as Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH). Additionally, the avoided premature death due to PM 2.5 reduction is estimated as a predicted number based on a log-linear concentration-response function. The total avoided premature death is 9952 in China, with dominant contribution (94%) from anthropogenic emission changes. For BTH, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Hubei regions, the reductions of PM 2.5 are 24.1, 24.3, 13.5 and 29.5 μg/m3, with the avoided premature deaths of 1066, 1963, 454 and 583, respectively. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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