Crisis u oportunidad: impacto de la migración venezolana en la productividad colombiana.

Crisis or opportunity: Impact of Venezuelan migration on Colombian productivity.

IMMIGRANTS; ECONOMIC sectors; EDUCATIONAL attainment; FINANCIAL crises; VENEZUELANS; LABOR productivity; LABOR mobility

La migración venezolana a Colombia ha movilizado alrededor de 1,8 millones de venezolanos y colombianos retornados a Colombia. Mediante un panel de datos, empleando efectos fijos, estimamos la diferencia del aporte a la productividad de la población migrante con la no migrante para dos periodos, 2013-2019 y 2015-2019, considerando nivel educativo, departamento y sector. Durante 2015-2019 la población migrante con nivel educativo alto tendría mayores contribuciones a la productividad que la población no migrante con nivel educativo bajo. Existe un sesgo de autoselección dado que los migrantes buscaron ocuparse en departamentos con mayor productividad. Este sesgo se corrige con una variable instrumental que explota la variación regional de las redes de migrantes existentes en 2005 y el momento e intensidad de la crisis económica venezolana. Este análisis evidencia que la migración venezolana afecta positivamente la productividad laboral colombiana a corto plazo y sirve como insumo para estructurar políticas migratorias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Venezuelan migration to Colombia has mobilized nearly 1.8 million Venezuelans and Colombian returnees to Colombia. Using a data panel with fixed effects, we estimate the difference in the contribution to productivity of the migrant and non-migrant population for two periods, 2013-2019 and 2015-2019, considering educational level, geographic department, and economic sector. In 2015-2019, migrant with a higher level of education contributed more to productivity than the non-migrant population with a low level of education. There is a self-selection bias given that migrants sought to work in departments with the higher levels of productivity. This bias is corrected with an instrumental variable that exploits the regional variation of the migrant networks existing in 2005 and the timing and intensity of the Venezuelan economic crisis. This analysis shows that Venezuelan migration positively affects Colombian labor productivity in the short term and works as an input to develop migratory policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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