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Projected land-use changes in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Insights and implications.
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- Author(s): Estoque, Ronald C.; Ooba, Makoto; Togawa, Takuya; Hijioka, Yasuaki
- Source:
AMBIO - A Journal of the Human Environment; Dec2020, Vol. 49 Issue 12, p1972-1981, 10p- Subject Terms:
- Source:
- Additional Information
- Subject Terms:
- Abstract: The conceptualization of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework represented a major leap in scenario development in the context of global environmental change and sustainability, providing significant advances from the previous scenario frameworks—especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. It is highly likely that the SSP concept, along with its scenario narratives and their respective results, including land-use change projections, will play a substantial role in the forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC. Here, we offer some insights that could make the SSPs' projected future changes in global land use more comprehensive and also help improve the interpretability of such projections. For example, instead of focusing on the quantity of each land-use class at various time points which results only in a net change when change is detected between time points, we recommend that the projected gross gains and gross losses in each land-use class across all scenarios should also be considered. Overall, the insights presented could also help pave the way for stronger collaboration between the SSP-climate science community and the land system science community; such collaboration is much needed in addressing the challenges of global environmental change towards a climate-resilient sustainable development pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Abstract: Copyright of AMBIO - A Journal of the Human Environment is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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