Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out-of-Sample Likelihood Functions.

There has been considerable debate regarding which probability distribution best represents crop yields. This study ranks six yield densities based on their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The forecasting ability for each density was ranked according to its likelihood function value when observed at out-of-sample observations. Results show that a semiparametric model offered bybest forecasts county average yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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