Austerity Policies and Mortality Rates in European Countries, 2011–2015.

MORTALITY; BUDGET; LONGITUDINAL method; TIME; GOVERNMENT policy; STATISTICAL models

Objectives. To assess time trends in mortality rates in European countries for the period 2011 to 2015 by level of austerity measures imposed by governments in response to the economic and financial crisis. Methods. We analyzed standardized mortality rates (SMRs) for 2011 through 2015 in 15 European countries based on Eurostat data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database). We used the Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB) in terciles as an independent variable to represent the level of austerity adopted in each country. We conducted a longitudinal analysis of panel data using generalized estimating equation models of SMR. We included interaction terms to assess the influence of time period and level of austerity. Results. SMRs generally declined in the study period, except in the last year of the study. In 2015, compared with countries in the low-austerity group, countries with intermediate austerity had excess mortality of 40.2 per 100 000 per year and those with high austerity had excess mortality of 31.22 per 100 000 per year. Conclusions. The results suggest a negative effect on mortality in those countries that apply a higher level of austerity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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