商业决策远离线性思维. (Chinese)

LINEAR THINKING IN A NONLINEAR WORLD. (English)

The human brain likes simple straight lines. As a result, people tend to expect that relationships between variables and outcomes will be linear. Often this is the case: The amount of data an iPad will hold increases at the same rate as its storage capacity. But frequently relationships are not linear: The time savings from upgrading a broadband connection get smaller and smaller as download speed increases. Would it surprise you to know that upgrading a car from 10 MPG to 20 MPG saves more gas than upgrading from 20 MPG to 50 MPG? Because it does. As fuel efficiency increases, gas consumption falls sharply at first and then more gradually. This is just one of four nonlinear patterns the authors identify in their article. Nonlinear phenomena are all around in business: in the relationship between price, volume, and profits; between retention rate and customer lifetime value; between search rankings and sales. If you don't recognize when they're in play, you're likely to make poor decisions. But if you map out relationships in data visualizations, you can actually see whether they are nonlinear and how—and then make choices that maximize your desired outcome. INSET: 让消费者免受.... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

先来做一道应用题。假如你负责管理公司车队，车队有两种车型，分别是一加仑汽油能跑10英里（简写为10 MPG，MPG是miles per gallon的缩写，代表每加仑英里数）的SUV和20 MPG的小轿车。两种车数量相同，且都是每年跑1万英里。你有足够的资金，可以把其中一种换成更省油的车型，降低运营成本，并实现可持续性目标。 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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