New UN projections depict a variety of demographic futures.

Publisher: Population Reference Bureau Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 8410942 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 0749-2448 (Print) Linking ISSN: 07492448 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Popul Today

Original Publication: Washington, D.C. : Population Reference Bureau, 1984-

Forecasting* ; Population Growth* ; United Nations*; Demography ; International Agencies ; Organizations ; Population ; Population Dynamics ; Research ; Statistics as Topic

Indexing Agency: PIP Local ID #: 122525. Indexing Agency: POP Local ID #: 00265849.
Keywords: Demographic Factors; Estimation Technics; International Agencies; Organizations; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Growth*; Population Projection*; Research Methodology; Un*; World*
Note: TJ: POPULATION TODAY
Local Abstract: [PIP] The UN Population Division current projection of a world population between 7.7 and 11.2 billion by 2050 is lower than the 1994 projection of 7.9-11.9 billion. This new projection is based on reduced total fertility rates in many regions. It is particularly difficult to make population projections in developing countries because demographers must base these projections on assumptions about birth and death rates. The UN, therefore, provides four projections based on various assumptions: high, medium, low, and constant fertility variants. The medium projection is usually labeled "most likely" to occur and assumes that fertility will converge at 2.1 children/woman by 2050. The low projection assumes that total fertility rate will decline to 1.6, and the high one uses a rate of 2.6. Constant fertility assumes that the 1990-95 fertility level of 3.0 will prevail and will produce a population of 15 billion by 2050. Projections for Africa indicate slightly slower growth because of the onset of fertility decline and the impact of AIDS, which has reduced life expectancy by about 6 years. Asia had a lower overall birth rate than was assumed for the period 1990-95 due to a reduction in the crude birth rate of India for the period. The projection for Latin America was slightly lower because of a decrease in Brazil's total fertility rate. Europe's projected population decline in the medium figures reflects the "free-fall" in fertility seen in the former Soviet republics and the newly independent states. These new UN projections show that it is possible to achieve reductions in population growth in developing countries. The assumptions behind these figures should be examined carefully, however, before they are used.

Date Created: 19970401 Date Completed: 19970804 Latest Revision: 20071115

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