The third population boom and corresponding macro-policies.

Publisher: Allerton Press Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101084111 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 1044-8403 (Print) Linking ISSN: 10448403 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Chin J Popul Sci

Original Publication: [New York, N.Y.] : Allerton Press, 1989-

Age Factors* ; Dependency, Psychological* ; Economics* ; Employment* ; Forecasting* ; Models, Theoretical* ; Old Age Assistance* ; Population Dynamics* ; Population Growth*; Asia ; China ; Demography ; Developing Countries ; Asia, Eastern ; Health Workforce ; Population ; Population Characteristics ; Research ; Statistics as Topic

Indexing Agency: IND Local ID #: 8020514. Indexing Agency: PIP Local ID #: 065251. Indexing Agency: POP Local ID #: 00210400.
Keywords: Age Factors*; Asia; China; Demographic Aging*; Demographic Factors; Dependency Burden*; Developing Countries; Eastern Asia; Economic Factors; Estimation Technics; Human Resources; Labor Force*; Macroeconomic Factors*; Microeconomic Factors; Old Age Security*; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Growth*; Population Projection*; Research Methodology; Theoretical Studies*
Note: TJ: CHINESE JOURNAL OF POPULATION SCIENCE
Local Abstract: [PIP] China's birth peak between 1962-1973, and the expected 3rd peak beginning in 1986 has and will create a need for better, stable family planning measures; economic planning between 1990 and 2020 needs to accommodate the working population which in 2010 is expected to be 71.4% of the population (956 million); and a macro-strategic policy needs to be developed of the elderly who may constitute 17.44% of the population. The aging trend in China's working age population is expected to rise so rapidly that in 48 years, between 1982 and 2040, the over 65 population will quadruple ( a process in developed countries usually taking 80 years), thus creating a significant impact on a society with a low level of economic development. It is suggested that along with the growth in the national economy should come a state-provided welfare and retirement system, with reforms necessary to generate the additional income for elderly support; it is important that the cultural pattern of family care of the elderly remain intact. Assisting the able elderly in earning income in the service sector is encouraged. China's population has historically undergone 2 peak growth periods, between 1685 and 1830 with a 1% growth rate and between 1949-89 with an annual growth rate of 1.8%. The 2nd period is marked by 2 smaller peaks, one between 1953- 1957 with a growth rate of 2.38% and 1962-73 with a growth rate of 2.56%. A decline after 1974 changed to another upward cycle in 1986 with an increase to a 1.43 % growth rate expected to continue to 1996. The 1st peak between 1953-57 has already affected population control and the job market, and the fecund population is of concern because of the absolute size of the population, and because the planned limit for population growth of 1.2 billion by the year 2000 may be exceeded; and the projected rates, which have been increasing as expected, mean a population of 1.5 billion by 2050.

Date Created: 19900101 Date Completed: 19921001 Latest Revision: 20221207

20221213

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