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Oczekiwane a rzeczywiste koszty i korzyści wstąpienia Polski do Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej - wybrane aspekty.
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- Author(s): Goczek, Łukasz1; Mycielska, Dagmara1
- Source:
International Business & Global Economy. 2014, Issue 33, p103-112. 10p.- Subject Terms:
- Source:
- Additional Information
- Alternate Title: The expected and realized costs and benefits of Poland's EMU accession -- selected issues.
- Abstract: The potential costs and benefits concerning Poland's EMU accession have recently been the focus of renewed attention in an ongoing public debate. On one hand, it is usually argued that floating exchange rates allowed Poland to emerge unscathed from the recent financial crisis due to Polish zloty depreciation. Moreover, it is expected that the main long-run cost of participation in a common currency area will be the loss of independent monetary policy. On the benefits side, it is frequently argued that joining the EMU will bring about increased trade flows. However, recent empirical analyses show that both of these textbook arguments in favor and against the common currency in Poland are incorrect, since many of these expected phenomena have already taken place. Therefore, the article aims to confront these arguments with the empirical facts in the literature on the subject. The reviewed evidence shows that the benefits and costs of joining EMU should be discussed not only as a theoretically expected future, since in fact most of them have been already realized in practice, partly due to the self-fulfilling expectations of Poland's euro adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Abstract: Problem potencjalnych kosztów i korzyści wejścia Polski do Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej (UGW) ponownie stał się tematem zaciętej debaty publicznej. Z jednej strony argumentem przeciw wejściu do UGW jest utrata korzyści z płynności złotego. Komentatorzy odwołują się tu często do ostatniego kryzysu, kiedy to deprecjacja złotówki miała korzystnie wpłynąć na eksport, nie dopuszczając w ten sposób do recesji. Innym argumentem przeciw akcesji jest utrata możliwości swobodnego kształtowania własnej polityki pieniężnej w unii monetarnej. Z kolei po stronie spodziewanych korzyści z akcesji wskazuje się na wzrost wolumenu handlu międzynarodowego w długim okresie. Należy jednak zauważyć, iż wnioski z badań empirycznych dotyczących tak postawionych problemów wskazują, że wymienione argumenty przestały być w znacznym stopniu zasadne. Celem artykułu jest zatem omówienie niektórych postulowanych korzyści i kosztów wprowadzenia euro w Polsce i skonfrontowanie ich z podawanymi w literaturze przedmiotu faktami empirycznymi. Wnioski z przytoczonych w artykule prac empirycznych pozwalają twierdzić, iż niektórych kosztów i korzyści wejścia do strefy euro nie należy rozważać w kategoriach przyszłości, w rzeczywistości bowiem większość z nich została już poniesiona i osiągnięta. Częściowo stało się tak z powodu zdyskontowanych i samospełniających się oczekiwań wejścia Polski do UGW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Abstract: Copyright of International Business & Global Economy is the property of Jagiellonian University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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