全球入侵物种马铃薯块茎蛾生态位 转移及适生区扩展. (Chinese)

Ecological niche shift and suitable area expansion of the globally invasive species Phthorimaea operculella. (English)

The moth Phthorimaea operculella is a major potato pest of global importance, and its early warning and detection are of significance. In this study, we analyzed the climate niche conservation of P. operculella during its invasion by comparing the overall climate niche of the pest from three dimensions, its native range (South America) and the entire invaded region (excluding South America), its native range (South America) and five invaded continents (North America, Oceania, Asia, Africa, and Europe), as well as its native region (South America) and an invaded region (China). Then, we constructed the ecological niche models for its native range (South America) and invaded region (China). The results indicated that the climatic niche of the pest has expanded to varying degrees in the mentioned regions, indicating that the pest could adapt well to new environments during the invasion processes. Almost all of South America is suitable for P. operculella. In China, its suitable area is mainly concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, Tianjin, Beijing, Henan, Hubei, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Hainan, northern Guangxi, southern Hunan, Anhui, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and southern Anhui. With increasing greenhouse gas emissions and the rise of global temperature, its suitable area will decrease at low latitude and increase gradually at high latitude. Specifically, the northern boundary will extend to Liaoning, Jilin, and the southeastern region of Inner Mongolia, while the western boundary extends to Sichuan and the southeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. At the same time, the suitable area in the southeast Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Hainan Island, and the south of Yangtze River, will gradually decrease. Compared with the current climate condition, the total suitable habitat area for P. operculella in China is projected to increase under future climate condition. From 2081 to 2100, under the three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios of ssp126, ssp370, and ssp585, the suitable area is expected to increase by 27.78, 165.54, and 140.41 hm², respectively. Therefore, it is crucial to heighten vigilance and implement strict measures to prevent the further expansion of P. operculella. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

马铃薯块茎蛾是一种全球性检疫害虫, 也是马铃薯的主要害虫, 对其进行早期预警和检测非常重 要。本研究从 3 个维度, 即原产地南美洲与整个入侵地 (以除南美洲以外的所有分布地为整体) 之间、原产 地南美洲与 ５ 个入侵大洲 (北美洲、大洋洲、亚洲、非洲和欧洲) 之间、原产地南美洲与入侵地中国之间的气 候生态位变化, 分析了马铃薯块茎蛾在入侵期间的气候生态位保守性, 并构建了该害虫在当前和未来气候情 景下在其原产地和入侵地 (中国) 的生态位模型。结果表明： 该害虫的气候生态位在上述地区均发生了不同 程度的扩张, 说明该害虫在入侵过程中能适应新的入侵地环境。马铃薯块茎蛾的适生区几乎遍布整个南美 州；在中国, 其适生区主要集中在山东、河北、天津、北京、河南、湖北、云南、贵州、四川、海南、广西北部、湖南 南部、安徽、广东、江苏、山西和陕西的南部, 随着温室气体排放浓度增加, 全球气温升高, 其适生区将在低纬 度地区减少, 逐渐向高纬度地区扩展, 具体表现为：北部向辽宁、吉林、内蒙古东南部扩展, 西部向四川及青藏 高原东南部延伸, 而云贵高原东南部、海南岛及长江以南等地区的适生区逐渐减少。与当前气候条件相比, 未来气候条件下我国马铃薯块茎蛾适生区总面积呈增加趋势, 在 2081 - 2100年, 在 ssp126、ssp370 和 ssp585 种温室气体排放情景下, 其适生区面积分别增加 27.78、165.54、140.41 hm²。因此, 迫切需要提高警惕, 严 防马铃薯块茎蛾危害的进一步扩展。 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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